Asia and Europe moving higher on Italian hopes

Both Asian and European markets are looking higher after Berlusconi stepped down and the lower house in Italy passed austerity measures designed to bring their $2.6 trillion debt under control.  Mario Monti has been selected as the new Italian president, heading up a technocratic government tasked with attempting to turn around Italy's failing economy and out of control government spending.  The Technocratic movement first appeared in 1919 after World War I when scientists and engineers were thought to be better-able to run governments.  This movement gained strength as a result of the Great Depression, but lost favor when FDR's New Deal, seen as a more democratic solution, was implemented.  With the apparent failure of socialist governments across Europe to rein in spending and deficit, this movement appears to be once again gaining a following.  Monti will be the first to test the validity of this resurgent movement.  In the short-term at least, it appears that financial markets welcome this change.  We should see US markets also open higher reflecting global optimism that Europe may finally be getting their financial house in order.

Italian bond yields spike, pummeling world financial markets

The yield on the 10-year Italian bond has spiked well above 7%, which was seen as the tipping point for Greece and Portugal forcing the EU to bail them out.  The key difference is that Italy, Europe's third largest economy, is simply too large to bail-out.  The ECB (European Central Bank) has been furiously buying Italian bonds, but this has not stopped prices from plummeting.

Financial markets across the globe have been hit hard, with most major exchanges down well over 2%.  We are going to open down well over 200 points on the Dow.  This will be a key test of the support levels on the market.  If we can hold today at or above support, it should give technical traders some confidence to buy the market higher, hopefully pushing us closer to the 200-day moving average.

Major indexes show improving technicals

All three of the major indexes are showing strong technical improvement, with the Dow forming a nice "W" pattern with a break-out above the top of that "W."  The S&P 500 i forming a "W" pattern right now, and looks to possibly break-out shortly.  The chart below shows that "W" for the S&P 500 (far right side of the chart), with tops right around the 1,260 level.  The 200-day moving average is at about 1,273.  If we break-out of this "W" we could certainly see a test of that 200-day and if we can get back above that level, it would be a huge positive for the markets.

Typically markets will stay above or below a 200-day moving average for long periods of time.  We broke down through the 200-day for the S&P 500 around the beginning of August and except for a recent, brief penetration, about a week ago, we have been stuck below it.  It can take a few tries before successfully surpassing the 200-day on the upside, but it appears that we are close to trading up into a higher range.  This would be welcome progress on the technical front, especially in light of all of the negativity in the markets we have endured of late.

What Does a Greek Austerity Referendum Signal for U.S. Markets? - Published in Noozhawk on Monday, November 7, 2011

http://www.noozhawk.com/article/110611_craig_allen/

Slower traffic keep right

If you believe that the slower traffic keep right laws should be enforced and expanded, please follow this link and sign the petition:

http://wh.gov/bI6

Does bounce in GDP signal better times ahead - published in Noozhawk on Monday, October 31, 2011

http://www.noozhawk.com/article/103011_craig_allen/

EU Agrees on deal; bondholders get screwed

Leaders of the EU countries plan to leverage the region's 440 billion euro ($609 billion) bailout fund to 1 trillion euros. The fund is known as the European Financial Stability Facility, (EFSF) and currently has between 250 billion to 275 billion euros left-over after bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The plan is to leverage the fund by around four times through a special investment vehicle and a debt-insurance plan.  Excuse me?  Isn't this how we got into trouble in the first place?  


YOU CANNOT BORROW YOUR WAY OUT OF DEBT!


Okay, I just had to get that out of my system.  What are these people thinking??


The other key announcement out of the Euro-zone summit was that private holders of Greek bonds will take (be forced to take) a 50% write-down on the value of their Greek bonds, which will save Greece 100 billion euros - great for Greece, not so great if you are a bank or individual holding these bonds.  


This outcome was baked in the cake - we knew it had to happen, but the result is a structural default on the part of Greece.  We can only hope that these measures, as ill-conceived as they may be, will be enough to deflect attention away from Greece, at least int eh short-run, so we can get back to focusing on our own, very significant problems here at home.


I don't see how Greece will ever be able to pay-back the money they have borrowed, either from private investors or from the EU bailout.  Even the most optimistic estimates don't show them balancing their budget for many, many years.  I serious doubt they will ever get there, much less have the money left-over after paying their regular operating expenses to pay-back hundreds of billions of euros in debt.  The only positive I can draw from this situation is that I was unlucky enough or foolish enough to loan them any money.